SERBIA REACTS ONLY TO PRESSURE ?

Despite a generally positive report on Belgrade's cooperation, “Netherlands will not change its position when it comes to Serbia's EU integration” said Maxime Verhagen, Dutch Foreign Affaires Minister.

Monday in New York the Chief Hague Prosecutor Serge Brammertz presented his regular report to the UN Security Council, citing arrests of fugitives as the main issue remaining in Belgrade's cooperation with the tribunal.

EU Council of Ministers made a decision earlier that the Stabilization and Association Agreement (SAA) can be applied only once Belgrade has achieved full cooperation with the war crimes court.

"We see that this cooperation is still not there from Serge Brammertz's report," a source at the Dutch ministry said, and added that until Mladić and Hadžić are free, the cooperation cannot be considered complete.

Netherlands sees Mladić's arrest and extradition as the best proof of cooperation.

"Once again, we do not wish to say that this is the only way, but our position on the implementation of the SAA will remain unchanged, until we see real progress. If the Serbian government wishes to show that it is fully cooperating with the tribunal, it will have to arrest Mladić," the source said.

The Serbian Minister for Labour and Social Policy, Rasim Ljajić, said to B-92, Serbian Television, that the latest report from the chief Hague prosecutor will not change the Dutch position on Serbia. "Instead of, conditionally speaking, awarding us, or valuing Karadžić's arrest adequately, it was not seen as our readiness to cooperate with the Hague, but as proof that Serbia reacts only to pressure, and that we can arrest anyone if we wish to do so," Ljajić said.

The temporary trade agreement is part of the Stabilization and Association Agreement (SAA), signed between Serbia and the EU in late April this year, and suspended immediately, pending Belgrade's full cooperation with the Hague Tribunal.

Bosnian Serb former military leader Ratko Mladić, and Croatian Serb political leader Goran Hadžić are still running.

PHOTO Legend: Maxime VERHAGEN, Dutch Minister for Foreign Affairs (right), Frans TIMMERMANS, Dutch Minister for European Affairs
© European Communities 2008

EU - DEFENCE

The EU has made significant progress in coordinating its security and defence policies since the historic Franco-British security summit in Saint Malo in 1998. Under the French EU presidency, further advancement of European Security and Defence Policy (ESDP) has been a major policy objective. The gains are real but European defence cooperation still has a long way to go if the reality is to match expectations.

The agreed projects establish a constructive model of "variable geometry", with most member states part of at least one initiative, including former members of the Warsaw Pact that have traditionally been reticent about ESDP. However, such cooperation will depend crucially on ratification of the Lisbon treaty, and much will depend on follow-up under successive EU presidencies.

Capacity still suffers from glaring weaknesses -- there remain too few troops, and too few of those are deployable. While there is a large technology gap (the United States spends seven times more than the EU on defence research), progress is perceptible.

The methodology of force generation -- pooling, specialisation, rationalisation and so on --- is now not only understood, but accepted by all member states, at least in theory. However, there is some concern, particularly given recent disagreements over policies towards Russia and the variety of attitudes towards the conflict in Afghanistan, that member states still do not share a common threat perception, which will make agreement on missions difficult. For instance, member states recently were divided over the appropriate reaction to the continuing crisis in the Democratic Republic of Congo.

The EU has come a long way since the Saint Malo security meeting. However, it still has a long way to go if the reality is to match the expectations the ESDP has generated.

EU - SERBIA - KOSOVO

EULEX mission deploys in northKOSOVO/EU
The first policemen, customs officers and legal officials began deploying as part of the EU's EULEX justice-and-law mission yesterday. The 1,900-strong mission includes more than 100 for the Serb-dominated north, which is loyal to Belgrade rather than Pristina and opposes Kosovo's independence from Serbia. Their task is to provide the local authorities with support, supervision and advice on issues related to the police, judiciary, customs and prisons.

The mission is to operate under UN Security Council Resolution 1244, which is still in force because of Serbia's Russian-backed opposition to the Ahtisaari plan to replace the UN mandate with 'supervised independence'.

EULEX is 'status neutral', and is even being welcomed in Belgrade as likely to improve security for the Serb minority. EULEX is being deployed under terms that amount to rolling back the Ahtisaari plan. This is frustrating for the independence aspirations of Kosovo's ethnic Albanian majority and could provoke an aggressive response from some quarters towards Serbs and even international officials.

EU-SERBIA

EU ministers stated that Serbia, “with its strong capacities in state administration, can speed up EU progress, and become a candidate for membership, as long as the necessary conditions are met.” European Enlargement Commissioner Olli Rehn has also received certain support for unfreezing the interim trade agreement with Belgrade.

The European Commission's annual progress report, issued on November 5, complimented the country on its administrative capacity, and noted the greater consensus within the government that took office in July on achieving EU integration. However, it noted shortcomings in numerous areas, including pervasive corruption and the ineffectiveness of the judiciary, and that the political focus on Kosovo meant that progress in carrying out reforms was slow.

The Dutch government is determined to make full cooperation with the international war crimes tribunal a condition for implementing the country's Stabilisation and Association Agreement with the EU. This means that progress on EU integration is likely to depend on Belgrade's success in delivering wartime Bosnian Serb commander Ratko Mladic to The Hague.
Dutch Foreign Minister Maxime Verhagen said in Brussels that cooperation had not improved sufficiently for Holland to change its stance on opposing the unfreezing of the agreement.

Commissioner Rehn and EU Foreign and Security Policy Chief Javier Solana commended Serbia’s constructive approach to the EULEX deployment in Kosovo. Commissioner Rehn stressed that “Serbia has been constructive to a great degree, and has had a positive approach to the deployment of EULEX,” and other issues related to the EU.

Due to same disagreements, the EU and NATO appear unable to pursue a consistent policy towards Kosovo, Serbia or Macedonia. The resultant uncertainty may undermine their commitment to reform, and harm stability.

CROATIA: EU is critical of slow progress regarding corruption, organised crime and judicial efficiency.

The trial of a former head of defence procurement accused of stealing diamonds risked breaking down after the key witness refused to testify. The witness, Hrovje Petrac, claimed he was too scared to do so following the death in October of his friend Ivo Pukanic, an influential journalist, in a car bomb. Pukanic's killing followed the apparent contract execution of Ivana Hodak, daughter of a defence lawyer in the case.

The killings, and now the problematic trial, have called into question the extent of rule of law in the country -- and so its suitability for EU accession. Croatia's courts are weak and under funded, and reforms announced quickly after Pukanic's death lack direction and may confuse and distract from existing reform measures. EU foreign ministers yesterday called on Croatia to step up judicial and administrative reform as one of several areas in which the country had to show progress before being offered an entry date. Brussels, having faced accusations of being too quick to give Romania and Bulgaria an accession date despite their own judicial problems, may take a tougher line on Croatia, encouraging possible Dutch and Slovenian veto. Nevertheless, economic issues (and in the case of Slovenia, a border dispute) may prove the larger obstacles to Croatia's eventual membership.

The EU is critical of slow progress regarding corruption, organised crime and judicial efficiency. These issues are already slowing down the negotiations, and some newspapers see the government's stepped-up rhetoric after the two assassinations as more a show for Brussels than a real change. By making the main issues the mafia, organised crime and corruption, the government has pushed judicial reform into the background, and onto a separate track. However, such reforms concern everyday life and business, and are of fundamental importance.

Croatian justice lacks neither laws nor coherence, but the will to make the existing system work, and to introduce discipline when it does not. Efficiency-enhancing organisational changes such as reform of the land registry have stopped in their tracks.

The government's proposed legal reforms to deal with recent assassinations may decrease rather than increase judicial efficiency, and have already lost credibility, apart from as regards the police.

EULEX Kosovo starts on 9th December

Javier SOLANA, EU High Representative for the Common Foreign and Security Policy (CFSP) today announced that the EULEX mission in Kosovo will start its mandate on Tuesday 9 December 2008.

"I very much welcome the declaration of initial operational capability for the EULEX mission in Kosovo. The mission can now start its work.

The EULEX mission is deployed in order to assist Kosovo in its progress towards reaching European standards in the areas of police, justice, customs and correctional services. The mission will be crucial for the consolidation of rule of law in Kosovo, and furthermore, the development of rule of law and strengthening of multi-ethnic institutions will be to the benefit of all communities in Kosovo. The mission is proof of the EU's strong commitment towards the Western Balkans and it will contribute to the enhancement of stability in the whole region.".

EU Member States were today informed by the EU Civilian Operations Commander, Mr Kees Klompenhouwer, that the EULEX mission has reached its initial operational capability and will accordingly assume its responsibilities in the area of rule of law throughout Kosovo as of 9 December 2008. The mission will implement its mandate in conformity with the Council Joint Action of 4 February 2008.

The objective of EULEX Kosovo is to support the Kosovo authorities by monitoring, mentoring and advising on all areas related to the rule of law, in particular in the police, judiciary, customs and correctional services. This means that the mission will assist the Kosovo institutions, judicial authorities and law enforcement agencies in their progress towards sustainability and accountability and in further developing and strengthening an independent multi-ethnic justice system and multi-ethnic police and customs service. The key priorities of the mission are to address immediate concerns regarding protection of minority communities, corruption and the fight against organised crime.

NEW COLD WAR ERA

The war between Georgia and Russia overshadowed a the OSCE meeting in Helsinki yesterday. The foreign ministers of 50 countries aimed to have make a step ahead on improving regional security and solving conflicts between members.

«We all know the situation (in Georgia) is still fragile and all sides must strictly adhere to the cease-fire agreement,» President of Finland Tarja Halonen said in her opening remarks at the meeting, adding that «the unresolved conflicts of the OSCE undermine our common security and pose a serious threat to our citizens».

At the two-day meeting in Helsinki, the ministers were to discuss new security arrangements proposed by Russian President Dmitry Medvedev last month, and the disputed enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh, which is in Azerbaijani territory but is occupied by Armenia.

«Right now, Georgia is the key question,» said Terhi Hakala, the OSCE representative in Georgia. «The negotiations are quite difficult at the moment because of the war and the (negotiating) parties are very far apart.»

Medvedev's new security proposals were to presented later Thursday by Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, said Finnish Foreign Minister Alexander Stubb. He gave few details, but said the proposals contain «lots of elements that are already in the OSCE, or in NATO or the EU.» «They include the mention of territorial integrity, refraining from the use of violence, democracy and human rights,» Stubb said. «People will be listening very carefully to Lavrov on Thursday.»

But Russian proposals for a new security pact in Europe are redundant and an attempt to weaken NATO, said a senior U.S. diplomat.


Courtesy:
Photo © OSCE 1995–2008

NATO-RUSSIA

NATO will gradually re-engage with Russia, with ambassadors meeting informally at the NATO-Russia Council (NRC), the alliance foreign ministers decided yesterday. This is a compromise between those members pushing for resuming contacts suspended in September after Russia's invasion of Georgia, and those unhappy with Russian non-compliance with the cease-fire.

US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice stressed that there was no return to "business as usual" with Russia. They compromised also on membership action plans (MAP) for Ukraine and Georgia.

According to French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner, neither is ready for a MAP; Secretary-General Jaap de Hoop Scheffer said MAP had not "evaporated", the April decision in Bucharest that both would join stood, and support for them would be strengthened via the NATO-Ukraine and NATO-Georgia commissions and the development of 'annual national programmes'.

With the EU resuming talks with Russia yesterday for a new partnership agreement, the "ice is melting", as Russian NATO Ambassador Dmitry Rogozin commented. However, the West is also marking time until the new US administration indicates how it wants to proceed.

Courtesy

Photo © NATO 2008

EU - TURKMENISTAN : NABUCCO PIPELINE

The European Union will push harder for a pipeline to carry natural gas from the Caspian Sea region to Europe while bypassing Russia. Russia's war with Georgia underscores the need to step up preparations for the Nabucco pipeline, EU special representative Pierre Morel said after meeting with the leader of gas-rich Turkmenistan, President Gurbanguli Berdymukhamedov.

«I was able to confirm to the president that the EU believes that we need to strengthen efforts on the construction of Nabucco,» Morel told reporters. «Concrete steps in that direction will be in the coming months, in early 2009.»

The Nabucco pipeline, backed by the U.S. and EU, would ease Europe's reliance on Russian energy. The leaders of Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan met last week, raising European hopes for construction of an undersea pipeline across the Caspian that could potentially link Central Asia's vast gas reserves to Western markets. Morel said that he offered Berdymukhamedov guarantees the EU is working with Western energy companies to develop long-term proposals to assist in developing Turkmenistan's huge hydrocarbon resources.

Turkmenistan estimates its total gas reserves stand at more than 26 trillion cubic yards (20 trillion cubic meters). Most of its exports go through Russia. Widespread skepticism about the Turkmen evaluation were mitigated earlier this year when British auditing company Gaffney, Cline and Associates disclosed that its investigations confirmed the country may hold the world's fourth-largest natural gas field. Doubts remain, however, whether the former Soviet republic will be able to satisfy all existing obligations and seal new contracts with Western partners. Turkmenistan has committed to exporting 65 billion cubic yards (50 billion cubic meters) per year to Russia under a 25-year contract and it also has agreed to provide China with 52 billion cubic yards (40 billion cubic meters) annually beginning late next year. An additional 10 billion cubic yards are sold annually to Iran.

Energy supply has become a matter of concern for many nations after problems last winter led to shortages and fears that consumers may have to go without.
"The issue of energy security is on the table of every energy minister, as well as foreign, finance and industry ministers across Europe," said EU Energy Commissioner Andris Piebalgs. "Nabucco concretely contributes to our energy security," he added.

The Nabucco pipeline will go through Turkey, Bulgaria, Romania, Hungary and Austria.
Photo
Courtesy to: http://www.nabucco-pipeline.com

KOSOVO-GERMANY

The case of three Germans suspected of bombing the EU's Kosovo headquarters may pass to an international judge, said Anton Nokaj of the Pristina District Court.

The Federal Intelligence Service (BND) has confirmed that the three arrested five days after a bomb went off outside the International Civilian Office of EU Special Representative Peter Feith on November 14 are its agents. The Pristina media have said they may be about to be released.

Recently, the unknown Army of the Republic of Kosovo claimed responsibility and threatened attacks on both the Serb minority and the EULEX mission if the EU remained 'neutral' on Kosovo's independence.

The bombing always seemed the work of ethnic Albanians impatient with slow implementation of February's independence declaration. Pristina's motives in opening a case against the Germans are a puzzle: that Berlin would countenance an attack on the EU is incredible. It may have been unhappy with information that the BND was gathering. Yet it would be folly especially at this difficult time to pick quarrels with Kosovo's best friends.

EU-WIDE ECONOMIC STIMULUS PACKAGE

European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso outlined proposals for an EU-wide economic stimulus package worth 200 billion euros (259 billion dollars), describing both the package and the crisis it faced as "exceptional".

While the Commission will redirect some money to the bailout -- by bringing forward structural and regional spending, and attaching fewer conditions to it -- most of the spending in the plan is the responsibility of national governments.

Given their own economic and political priorities, states are already adopting a wide variety of relief schemes, calling into question the likelihood of further co-ordination. Rather than securing new money, the Commission's most meaningful tool is to ensure states are not punished for actions they have already planned to take.

Along with Economic and Financial Affairs Commissioner Joaquin Almunia, Barroso confirmed that states could make "temporary" deviations from EU budget deficit guidelines, state aid rules, and minimum VAT levels, which are policed by the Commission. The Commission's attempts to encourage spending will chime with efforts already underway in national capitals, and will not add enormously to them. With the chance growing of a longer European recession, Brussels' public insistence on a swift return to growth and stability pact rules is likely to weaken in private.